Abstract

This document presents fiscal simulations to visualize possible trajectories of the Colombian Consolidated Public Debt/GDP ratio over 2019-2024. The main conclusion is that the driving-force to stabilize such ratio must come from efforts to increase tax-collections from 14% to 16% of GDP over 2022-2024. We consider three scenarios: Case A (support additional social expenditure of +2% of GDP, but without additional tax-collections); Case B (curtail that social expenditure, given the absence of the additional tax-collection); and Case C (maintain that social expenditure but supported by the required tax-reform and the one-off proceeds from privatizations yielding about 1% of GDP). Even under Case B, Colombia's consolidated public debt ratio would continue to increase from 65% in 2020 towards 73% by 2024. Under Case A debt would escalate towards 75% of GDP by 2024; under C debt could be contained at 73% of GDP and positive signals of stabilization would arise as additional social and investment expenditure propel higher growth rates.Years 2022-2024 look appropriate to pursue modifications of a Fiscal Rule that over 2014-2019 was characterized by: (i) allowing an escalation of debt ratios that duplicated to 52% of GDP (even before pandemic); (ii) recurrent changes in gaps related to oil-price and GDP-growth; (iii) use of “escaping-clauses”; and (iv) absence of primary balance anchors. Finally, we focus on tax-administration issues that could support additional revenues and the “politicaleconomy” themes that should be kept in mind while the new Administration (2022-2026) tackles the required structural reforms related to fiscal, labor, and pension items.

Keywords: Taxes (H2), Public Goods (H44), Public Debt (H63), Latin America (O54)